Is ECL – the Lazarus of Politics – Back?

Former President Edgar Chagwa Lungu has recently been making headlines – some for unpopular reasons. After his declaration that he is back in politics, ECL’s populist ideas are back on the table, with the former President visiting churches and markets much to the annoyance of the police and the UPND government. With the 2026 Presidential election up for grabs, and with the PF party facing legal issues with the Miles Sampa faction, many PF sympathizers clearly have more faith in ECL – fortunately or unfortunately. Like Lazarus, ECL has come back from the political death of 2021. It took Lazarus four days to be resurrected – it has taken ECL almost 3 years. He is now the most fearless figure among the opposition politicians, occupying the leading role in what has now come to be known as the UKA Alliance. There appears to be a shrewd political calculation in the surprise resurrection of ECL, and many followers have reasons to have faith in ECL.

First is that although ECL lost the 2021 election to the incumbent Hakainde Hichilema, he still managed to amass circa 1.8 million votes. The dismal performance by the UPND-led government means Lungu is hoping that the 1.8 million voters have not been swayed by the rhetoric of the current regime. Indeed, Hichilema has not been helped by extended power disruptions affecting small to medium-scale enterprises, deteriorating exchange rates, and a high cost of living. In March, the Jesuit Centre for Theological Reflection (JCTR) revealed that the cost of living (for a family of five as measured by JCTR Basic Needs and Nutrition Basket) in Lusaka stood at K10,307.01, indicating an increase of K751.48 from the K9,555.53 recorded in January 2024. A recent drought has not only affected power generation but also agricultural production, leading to a serious food crisis. Here the government has been blamed for mishandling national maize reserves – choosing to export the reserves and risking local lives. Meanwhile, the agricultural sector has, in the post-PF era, been poorly supported by the UPND government. Additionally, it would appear the challenges left by the PF in the mining sector have not gone away, and the UPND government has not shown much leadership in the sector. Elsewhere, the government faces accusations of nepotism at various levels of government, leaving the country deeply polarized. It is this polarization that ECL looks to exploit, arguing that while he is willing to serve under any leadership in the UKA Alliance, he promises to be a better president if given a second chance.

There are questions about whether, like the biblical Lazarus, ECL is truly back. However, as long as ECL does not clearly articulate his vision – this time around – his resurrection will lead to the same old story. His leadership may take Zambia back. ECL’s legacy points to a decline in democracy, including intimidation, harassment, and arrests of members of the opposition parties, and critics of the government. He presided over human rights violations, such as the shooting of a state prosecutor and a UPND sympathizer when police fired on a crowd that had gathered near police headquarters to protest the harassment of Hichilema in 2020. Other issues included maneuvers to amend the constitution, unprecedented levels of corruption, and a debt crisis under the Lungu government. The cost of living also soared as the annual inflation rate reached record highs not seen in two decades. A campaign focused on physical infrastructure did very little to garner re-election. In 2020, Zambia made headlines as the first country to default on its debt repayment obligations. This background places Lungu on a very difficult path for any dreams of re-election. It would appear that the resurrection is, after all, the easiest part.

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