Political Comment by Mwelwa – Health, Social and Political Demographer
Kenya may soon witness the addition of President William Samoei Ruto to the list of African leaders who served only a single term. Facing escalating political and economic challenges, Ruto’s path to securing a second term appears increasingly precarious. Without a well-developed political strategy, he risks joining the ranks of leaders who have not been re-elected.
A key factor in this impending challenge is the intricate voting dynamics within Kenya’s regional blocs. The Mount Kenya region, predominantly inhabited by the Kikuyu community, remains the largest and most influential voting bloc in the nation. Historically, securing support from this region has been crucial for any presidential candidate. The Luo and Luhya communities constitute the second-largest bloc, followed closely by Ruto’s own Kalenjin community.
In the 2022 elections, Ruto’s victory was significantly bolstered by a vigorous campaign led by the “Gachagua camp” in Kikuyu territory, effectively countering Raila Odinga’s influence in that area. With strong backing from the Kalenjin community, Ruto was able to surpass Raila’s support among the Luo and ultimately win the presidency.
However, the landscape for the 2027 elections could shift dramatically. If Raila’s party decides to nominate a Kikuyu candidate, possibly Kalonzo Musyoka—who has served as Vice President and held key ministerial roles such as Minister of Foreign Affairs and Minister of Home Affairs—the political dynamics could change significantly. Kalonzo is also viewed as a trusted ally of Raila within the Luo community. Additionally, former President Uhuru Kenyatta, who supported Raila’s coalition in 2022, remains politically active and may again lend his support to the opposition.
Moreover, former Vice President Rigathi Gachagua, feeling aggrieved by past political sidelining, might choose to support any alliance that fields a strong candidate from Mount Kenya or another contender against Ruto.
In this scenario, Ruto could find himself heavily reliant on votes from his Kalenjin stronghold, a demographic that may be too narrow to secure a national victory. Compounding this challenge are rising economic pressures, including a high cost of living, which threaten to undermine the president’s popularity.
Unless Ruto can expand his coalition and provide meaningful relief to Kenyan households, his presidency could very well become another example of Africa’s trend toward one-term leaders.
— By Mwelwa – Health, Social and Political Demographer
